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美国经济会低开高走(组图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年03月26日 20:00:21
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(程)(实)(  就)(在)(大)(多)(数)(人)(都)(已)(认)(同)(2015年)(美)(国)(经)(济)(相)(对)(强)(势)(的)(时)(候)(,4月)(末)(公)(布)(的)(美)(国)(经)(济)(核)(心)(数)(据)(却)(大)(幅)(低)(于)(预)(期)(。  美)(国)(一)(季)(度)(实)(际)(GDP季)(环)(比)(增)(长)(年)(率)(仅)(为)(0.2%,不)(仅)(较)(上)(一)(季)(度)(下)(滑)(2个)(百)(分)(点)(,还)(明)(显)(低)(于)(1947年)(以)(来)(3.26%的)(趋)(势)(水)(平)(和)(2008年)(以)(来)(1.24%的)(危)(机)(后)(水)(平)(。  美)(国)(经)(济)(2015年)(大)(好)(的)(复)(苏)(前)(景)(会)(不)(会)(由)(于)(这)(个)(超)(预)(期)(的)(弱)(开)(局)(而)(变)(成)(泡)(影)(?  笔)(者)(以)(为)(,要)(回)(答)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,需)(要)(做)(两)(方)(面)(的)(工)(作)(:一)(是)(深)(入)(剖)(析)(一)(季)(度)(美)(国)(经)(济)(疲)(弱)(的)(真)(实)(性)(及)(其)(内)(在)(成)(因)(,二)(是)(结)(合)(各)(类)(政)(治)(经)(济)(要)(素)(,思)(考)(美)(国)(经)(济)(未)(来)(运)(行)(的)(支)(撑)(力)(度)(和)(可)(能)(变)(化)(。  先)(来)(看)(美)(国)(经)(济)(一)(季)(度)(羸)(弱)(数)(据)(的)(内)(在)(结)(构)(。  利)(用)(笔)(者)(构)(建)(的)(测)(算)(方)(法)(,在)(实)(际)(GDP增)(长)(率)(中)(剔)(除)(掉)(库)(存)(变)(化)(、进)(出)(口)(和)(政)(府)(支)(出)(三)(大)(波)(动)(性)(要)(素)(的)(贡)(献)(后)(,一)(季)(度)(美)(国)(经)(济)(内)(生)(增)(长)(动)(力)(为)(0.86%,不)(仅)(低)(于)(2.7%的)(历)(史)(趋)(势)(水)(平)(,还)(低)(于)(1.04%的)(危)(机)(后)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,并)(创)(2009年)(四)(季)(度)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(值)(。此)(外)(,值)(得)(强)(调)(的)(是)(,尽)(管)(2015年)(一)(季)(度)(0.2%的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(高)(于)(2014年)(一)(季)(度)(和)(2011年)(一)(季)(度)(的)(-2.1%和)(-1.5%,但)(后)(两)(个)(季)(度)(的)(内)(生)(增)(长)(动)(力)(都)(高)(于)(2015年)(一)(季)(度)(。由)(此)(可)(见)(,2015年)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(弱)(开)(局)(是)(真)(实)(的)(,并)(可)(以)(说)(是)(本)(轮)(复)(苏)(以)(来)(表)(现)(最)(差)(的)(单)(一)(季)(度)(。  毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,表)(现)(如)(此)(差)(的)(一)(个)(季)(度)(,增)(长)(引)(擎)(肯)(定)(是)(全)(面)(哑)(火)(。  消)(费)(主)(引)(擎)(的)(增)(长)(贡)(献)(为)(1.31个)(百)(分)(点)(,较)(上)(一)(季)(度)(下)(降)(1.67个)(百)(分)(点)(,虽)(然)(低)(于)(2.09个)(百)(分)(点)(的)(历)(史)(均)(值)(,但)(好)(在)(还)(是)(高)(于)(1.04个)(百)(分)(点)(的)(危)(机)(后)(均)(值)(,而)(且)(仅)(是)(近)(5个)(季)(度)(最)(低)(。  投)(资)(引)(擎)(的)(表)(现)(略)(差)(一)(些)(,一)(季)(度)(增)(长)(贡)(献)(为)(0.34个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(的)(历)(史)(均)(值)(,但)(高)(于)(0.13个)(百)(分)(点)(的)(危)(机)(后)(均)(值)(;不)(过)(,如)(若)(剔)(除)(掉)(库)(存)(变)(化)(,一)(季)(度)(投)(资)(贡)(献)(将)(下)(降)(到)(-0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(0.62的)(历)(史)(均)(值)(和)(0.05的)(危)(机)(后)(均)(值)(,并)(创)(近)(24个)(季)(度)(最)(低)(。  表)(现)(最)(差)(的)(是)(贸)(易)(引)(擎)(,这)(个)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(最)(无)(关)(痛)(痒)(的)(动)(力)(来)(源)((历)(史)(增)(长)(贡)(献)(仅)(为)(-0.1),一)(季)(度)(却)(造)(成)(了)(沉)(重)(打)(击)(,给)(经)(济)(增)(长)(带)(来)(了)(1.25个)(百)(分)(点)(的)(增)(长)(拖)(累)(。  对)(增)(长)(引)(擎)(的)(分)(析)(实)(际)(上)(说)(明)(,2015年)(美)(国)(经)(济)(弱)(开)(局)(的)(重)(要)(成)(因)(是)(外)(需)(和)(内)(需)(双)(向)(萎)(靡)(。更)(进)(一)(步)(看)(,4月)(中)(旬)(,IMF曾)(在)(WEO预)(期)(更)(新)(中)(意)(外)(将)(2015和)(2016年)(美)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(预)(期)(分)(别)(较)(1月)(下)(调)(0.5和)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,当)(时)(IMF强)(调)(了)(长)(期)(增)(长)(中)(枢)(下)(移)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(拖)(累)(。在)(我)(看)(来)(,IMF在)(WEO报)(告)(中)(提)(及)(、但)(并)(未)(单)(独)(针)(对)(美)(国)(的)(两)(种)(再)(分)(配)(效)(应)(可)(以)(更)(好)(地)(解)(释)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(短)(期)(走)(弱)(:  一)(是)(复)(苏)(利)(益)(从)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(国)(向)(贬)(值)(国)(转)(移)(,美)(元)(一)(季)(度)(持)(续)(升)(值)(带)(来)(巨)(大)(拖)(累)(;二)(是)(复)(苏)(利)(益)(从)(低)(油)(价)(受)(损)(国)(向)(受)(益)(国)(转)(移)(,虽)(然)(美)(国)(作)(为)(石)(油)(进)(口)(国)(受)(到)(低)(油)(价)(的)(些)(许)(提)(振)(,但)(作)(为)(新)(能)(源)(产)(业)(大)(国)(,美)(国)(受)(到)(新)(能)(源)(替)(代)(效)(应)(减)(弱)(的)(冲)(击)(,这)(种)(短)(期)(冲)(击)(甚)(至)(比)(能)(源)(成)(本)(下)(降)(的)(渐)(进)(受)(益)(要)(更)(强)(烈)(。  两)(种)(再)(分)(配)(效)(应)(将)(美)(国)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(利)(益)(向)(欧)(日)(输)(送)(,进)(而)(形)(成)(了)(全)(球)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(“平)(均)(化)(”的)(近)(期)(态)(势)(,并)(造)(就)(了)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(弱)(开)(局)(。  接)(下)(来)(的)(关)(键)(问)(题)(是)(,弱)(开)(局)(之)(后)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(是)(低)(开)(低)(走)(,还)(是)(低)(开)(高)(走)(?我)(以)(为)(,后)(者)(概)(率)(大)(很)(多)(,原)(因)(有)(六)(:  其)(一)(,弱)(开)(局)(是)(一)(种)(莫)(名)(但)(确)(实)(存)(在)(的)(危)(机)(后)(现)(象)(。通)(过)(数)(据)(测)(试)(,我)(发)(现)(了)(一)(个)(有)(趣)(的)(规)(律)(,危)(机)(以)(来)(,每)(年)(一)(季)(度)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(表)(现)(几)(乎)(都)(很)(差)(,2015年)(一)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(长)(率)(环)(比)(下)(降)(2个)(百)(分)(点)(,而)(2014年)(是)(环)(比)(下)(降)(5.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。2007~2015年)(,每)(个)(一)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(平)(均)(下)(降)(1.98个)(百)(分)(点)(,而)(1948~2015年)(,每)(个)(一)(季)(度)(是)(平)(均)(上)(升)(0.53个)(百)(分)(点)(。考)(虑)(到)(数)(据)(本)(身)(是)(经)(过)(季)(节)(调)(整)(的)(,出)(现)(这)(种)(规)(律)(的)(确)(很)(难)(解)(释)(,但)(至)(少)(这)(个)(规)(律)(表)(明)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(是)(习)(惯)(于)(低)(开)(高)(走)(的)(。2015年)(可)(能)(也)(不)(例)(外)(。  其)(二)(,创)(新)(正)(在)(悄)(然)(提)(升)(美)(国)(全)(要)(素)(生)(产)(力)(。虽)(然)(2015年)(一)(季)(度)(美)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(引)(擎)(全)(面)(哑)(火)(,但)(还)(是)(有)(一)(些)(细)(节)(数)(据)(保)(有)(亮)(点)(。最)(突)(出)(的)(一)(点)(是)(,知)(识)(产)(权)(投)(资)(季)(环)(比)(年)(率)(增)(长)(5.8%,高)(于)(历)(史)(平)(均)(的)(4.83%和)(危)(机)(后)(平)(均)(的)(-0.56%,连)(续)(第)(三)(个)(季)(度)(正)(增)(长)(,此)(前)(14个)(季)(度)(里)(则)(有)(连)(续)(13个)(季)(度)(是)(负)(增)(长)(。一)(季)(度)(知)(识)(产)(权)(投)(资)(给)(经)(济)(增)(长)(带)(来)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(的)(贡)(献)(,高)(于)(历)(史)(平)(均)(的)(0.14和)(危)(机)(后)(平)(均)(的)(0.12。  其)(三)(,消)(费)(引)(擎)(不)(会)(后)(继)(乏)(力)(。一)(季)(度)(美)(国)(消)(费)(虽)(然)(表)(现)(乏)(力)(,但)(也)(不)(算)(完)(全)(脱)(力)(,并)(未)(形)(成)(惯)(性)(下)(滑)(的)(大)(通)(道)(。消)(费)(增)(长)(可)(持)(续)(性)(取)(决)(于)(两)(个)(因)(素)(,一)(是)(居)(民)(收)(入)(,二)(是)(消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(。应)(该)(说)(,这)(两)(方)(面)(的)(数)(据)(表)(现)(都)(较)(为)(乐)(观)(。一)(季)(度)(,美)(国)(人)(均)(实)(际)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(季)(环)(比)(年)(率)(增)(长)(5.47%,增)(速)(不)(仅)(较)(上)(一)(季)(度)(提)(升)(2.67个)(百)(分)(点)(,还)(高)(于)(2.2%的)(历)(史)(均)(速)(和)(0.85%的)(危)(机)(后)(均)(速)(;2015年)(4月)(的)(美)(国)(消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(指)(数)(为)(95.9,较)(上)(月)(上)(升)(2.9,创)(2005年)(7月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。  其)(四)(,通)(缩)(危)(险)(潜)(在)(加)(大)(了)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(倾)(向)(。由)(于)(低)(油)(价)(成)(为)(新)(常)(态)(,且)(总)(需)(求)(出)(现)(下)(滑)(,美)(国)(物)(价)(面)(临)(着)(双)(重)(下)(降)(压)(力)(,2015年)(1~3月)(,美)(国)(CPI同)(比)(增)(长)(率)(分)(别)(为)(-0.2%、-0.1%和)(0%,2009年)(10月)(以)(来)(首)(次)(出)(现)(非)(正)(数)(据)(,虽)(然)(剔)(除)(掉)(能)(源)(价)(格)(影)(响)(后)(,同)(期)(核)(心)(CPI同)(比)(增)(长)(率)(分)(别)(为)(1.6%、1.7%和)(1.8%,但)(绝)(对)(通)(缩)(压)(力)(依)(旧)(存)(在)(。此)(外)(,2015年)(3月)(,美)(国)(PPI同)(比)(增)(幅)(为)(-3.3%,连)(续)(第)(4个)(月)(出)(现)(负)(值)(,表)(明)(生)(产)(领)(域)(的)(通)(缩)(压)(力)(也)(正)(在)(逐)(渐)(扩)(散)(。通)(缩)(阴)(霾)(之)(下)(,美)(联)(储)(在)(货)(币)(政)(策)(取)(向)(上)(将)(比)(预)(期)(更)(为)(宽)(松)(,近)(期)(加)(息)(的)(可)(能)(性)(明)(显)(下)(降)(,这)(种)(宽)(松)(倾)(向)(将)(给)(实)(体)(经)(济)(后)(续)(复)(苏)(创)(造)(更)(好)(的)(货)(币)(环)(境)(。  其)(五)(,美)(元)(升)(值)(造)(成)(的)(增)(长)(拖)(累)(有)(望)(减)(轻)(。实)(际)(上)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(自)(2015年)(二)(季)(度)(初)(以)(来)(已)(经)(呈)(现)(出)(高)(位)(下)(降)(的)(态)(势)(,而)(美)(国)(国)(内)(对)(强)(势)(美)(元)(的)(非)(议)(也)(日)(趋)(激)(烈)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,在)(如)(此)(复)(杂)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,美)(联)(储)(近)(来)(却)(对)(美)(元)(刻)(意)(“三)(缄)(其)(口)(”,这)(反)(而)(加)(大)(了)(市)(场)(对)(美)(国)(政)(策)(层)(有)(意)(引)(导)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(的)(预)(期)(,而)(这)(种)(预)(期)(存)(在)(较)(大)(的)(自)(我)(实)(现)(力)(量)(。  其)(六)(,政)(治)(周)(期)(临)(近)(将)(提)(振)(短)(期)(经)(济)(表)(现)(。2015年)(是)(美)(国)(大)(选)(前)(的)(关)(键)(年)(,而)(且)(2016年)(大)(选)(注)(定)(将)(诞)(生)(一)(位)(新)(总)(统)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(政)(治)(周)(期)(临)(近)(的)(影)(响)(将)(渐)(趋)(强)(烈)(。奥)(巴)(马)(政)(府)(存)(在)(较)(大)(激)(励)(去)(做)(强)(复)(苏)(和)(就)(业)(,并)(通)(过)(保)(护)(主)(义)(政)(策)(减)(轻)(国)(内)(压)(力)(。  总)(之)(,2015年)(一)(季)(度)(美)(国)(经)(济)(表)(现)(的)(确)(不)(尽)(如)(人)(意)(,但)(综)(合)(各)(类)(因)(素)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(低)(开)(高)(走)(的)(概)(率)(较)(高)(,而)(在)(此)(过)(程)(中)(,相)(比)(预)(期)(水)(平)(,美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(取)(向)(将)(更)(趋)(宽)(松)(、汇)(率)(政)(策)(选)(择)(将)(更)(趋)(弱)(势)(、贸)(易)(政)(策)(选)(择)(将)(更)(趋)(保)(守)(。对)(于)(中)(国)(而)(言)(,这)(不)(仅)(意)(味)(着)(国)(际)(市)(场)(波)(动)(性)(将)(显)(著)(加)(大)(,还)(意)(味)(着)(美)(国)(在)(全)(球)(利)(益)(博)(弈)(中)(的)(攻)(击)(性)(可)(能)(提)(升)(,唯)(有)(保)(有)(增)(长)(动)(力)(、坚)(定)(改)(革)(决)(心)(、挖)(掘)(创)(新)(潜)(力)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(才)(能)(在)(复)(杂)(行)(驶)(中)(平)(稳)(前)(行)(。(作)(者)(系)(盘)(古)(智)(库)(学)(术)(委)(员)()  作)(者)(:程)(实)(
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